Daily comments

Global equity markets. US markets failed to sustain intraday gains and closed lower for a third session (S&P 500 -0.9%, Nasdaq -1.3%), even as UST yields decreased (UST10 -9 bps to 1.77%). Growth of initial jobless claims to 286k highlighted trou...

CIS Macroeconomics

At today's meeting, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan (CBRU) decided to keep the base rate unchanged at 14%, in line with our expectations. The tone of the press release eased somewhat, with the CBRU signaling a possible transition to ra...

CIS Macroeconomics

We expect the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) at its meeting on Monday, January 24 to keep the base rate at 9.75%. We see the following arguments in favor of such a decision: 1) inflation is decelerating and the real rate has increased to +135 bps;...

Macroeconomics

Russia CPI slowed to 0.1% over the January 11-14 period. Growth in stable components of inflation remained low for a third straight week, confirming our view that CPI has reached a plateau. We expect the figure to remain around 8.4-8.5% YoY over the ...

CIS Macroeconomics

We expect S&P on Friday, January 21 to confirm the sovereign rating of Azerbaijan at the BB+ level with a Stable outlook on the back of 1) favorable conditions on the hydrocarbons market; 2) a stable situation on the FX market amid 3) high intern...

Topics: Russia’s weekly inflation, Russia’s budget, PIK, Rusagro, Uzbekistan’s reserves, Azerbaijan’s SOFAZ

Global equity markets. US indices closed notably lower for a second day amid worries about Fed rate hikes and expectations that the UST10’s yield could exceed 2%. The S&P 500 (-1.0%) closed below its 100-day moving average for the first time sinc...

Topics: Russia’s balance of payment, Azerbaijan’s FX market, Uzbekistan’s economy

Global equity markets. US markets fell sharply (S&P 500 -1.5%, Nasdaq -2.6%) amid disappointing earnings results from banks and speculation that the Fed may deliver up to a 50 bps rate hike in March. The UST10’s yield jumped to 1.88% and has rise...

CIS Macroeconomics

At its first meeting this year on Thursday, January 20, we expect the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan (CBRU) to keep the base rate at 14% and continue to focus on curbing inflation. The main arguments in favor of such a decision remain unc...

Topics: inflation and economic growth in Azerbaijan, economic growth in Belarus

Global equity markets. Following last week’s declines, European markets advanced on Monday (EuroSTOXX +0.7%, DAX +0.3%) prior to tomorrow’s start of the 4Q21 earnings season. US markets were closed on holiday. Emerging markets declined for a third st...

January 17-21

Amid mounting geopolitical risks, the ruble weakened by 0.6% against the dollar last week to USD/RUB 76.2 despite a continuing rally in energy prices. EM currencies showed a positive dynamic. On global debt markets, UST yields increased following the...