13/02/2018

THEMES THIS WEEK: RUB/USD: preliminary target of RUB/USD 57 has been reached, but the trend has already completed an upward reversal; this week’s trading idea – HOLD LONG POSITIONS with a new target of RUB/USD 60. Brent: a cup with a handle or a cup ...

06/02/2018

THEMES THIS WEEK: RUB/USD: medium-term trend has begun to shift upward; this week’s trade strategy – HOLD LONG POSITIONS with a preliminary technical target of RUB/USD 57. Brent: medium-term trend is completing a downward reversal; this week’s trade ...

Debt Market

On Friday, media distributed the US Treasury Department’s report on the expedience of imposing sanctions on ownership of Russian sovereign debt. Although not stated explicitly, the content and tone of the document imply a low probability of such rest...

Debt and FX markets

Moody’s assigned IG ratings to Russia’s largest exporters whose credit profiles benefit from foreign revenue diversification, namely Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, Alrosa, Lukoil, PhosAgro, Rosneft and SIBUR. Less expectedly, the agency upgraded to above the...

30/01/2018

THEMES THIS WEEK: USD/RUB: cycle is forming a zigzag pattern amid a slowing downward trend; this week’s trade strategy – BUY with a preliminary technical target of USD/RUB 57. Brent: medium-term rising trend is coming to an end; this week’s trade str...

Debt and FX markets

Moody’s changed its outlook on Russia’s sovereign rating to positive from stable and raised the country ceiling to Baa3. The likely buy candidates are Gazprom and PhosAgro. The key macro takeaway from the agency’s action is that it creates a case in ...

Trade Idea

We expect the spread of the RUSSIA 27 (YTM 3.84%) to the KAZAKS 25 (YTM 3.40%) to retrace back to 71 bps (the mid-December 2017 high) from a current 44 bps due to the following factors: On January 23, a Dutch court canceled its decision to freeze as...

23/01/2018

THEMES THIS WEEK: USD/RUB: cycle is in a growth phase amid a slowing downward trend; this week’s trade strategy – temporarily NO POSITION. Brent: medium-term upward trend is slowing; this week’s trade strategy – temporarily NO POSITION. Gold: medium-...

17/01/2018

Themes this week RUB/USD: cycle is in a growth phase amid a downward trend; this week’s trade strategy — temporarily NO POSITION. Brent: cycle is in a decline phase amid bearish divergence; this week’s trade strategy — CLOSE SHORT POSITIONS. Gold: me...

Trade Ideas

S&P downgraded the sovereign rating of Brazil from BB to BB-, assigning a stable outlook. This action will trigger a downgrade of the ratings of several corporate IG issuers, which could lead to the exclusion of these papers from the Bloomberg Ba...