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Research Articles
July 12, 2019

Ruble forecast update

Macroeconomics

Given the current FX market dynamic for 1H19 and our updated oil price forecast, we are revising our ruble exchange rate forecast for 2019 and 2020.

GPB_Ruble_forecast_update_ENG

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Research Articles
July 12, 2019

NBK base rate preview: No move, attention to inflation performance

CIS Macroeconomics

We expect the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) to keep the base rate unchanged at 9.0% at its meeting on Monday, July 15.

GPB_NBK_July_base_rate

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Research Articles
June 28, 2019

NWF: Lucky number 7

Macroeconomics

According to the CBR, changes in the NWF’s approach to expenditures (oil & gas expenses) could have an impact on medium-term inflation dynamics and the ruble exchange rate, making the economy more dependent on oil prices.

GPB_NWF_280619

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Research Articles
June 17, 2019

CBR key rate preview: No change expected

macroeconomics

On December 14, the CBR will hold its last board meeting this year, where it will decide whether to hike or otherwise leave the key rate unchanged. Based on the following arguments presented in this preview, we expect the regulator to keep the key ra...

CBR_key rate_preview_121018

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Research Articles
June 14, 2019

CBR meeting review: Rate cut tracks inflation

Macroeconomics

The CBR today decided to reduce the key rate by 0.25% to 7.50%.

GPB_CBR_key rate_review_June_140619

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Research Articles
June 11, 2019

Update of GDP growth forecast - 1.5%

Macroeconomics

Russian economic growth in 1Q19 slowed to 0.5% YoY after 2.3% in 2018. This result impacted our assessment of the growth trajectory, which we are reducing from 1.8% to 1.5% in 2019. In this note, we focus on three topics – the reasons for the slowdow...

GPB_GDP_revision_110619

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GPB_GDP_revision_110619

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Research Articles
June 10, 2019

CBR meeting preview: Soft rhetoric implies rate cut

Macroeconomics

On June 14, the CBR will hold a regular meeting of the BoD, which will be followed by a speech from the Chair and an updated macro forecast.

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Research Articles
June 6, 2019

FX market: FX purchases and ruble rate forecast

Macroeconomics

On Wednesday, the Finance Ministry will announce the volume of regular FX purchases as part of the budget rule for the period of April 5 – May 13.

GPB_FX_volumes_April_010419

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Research Articles
June 3, 2019

NBK expectedly keeps base rate at 9.00%, turns hawkish and does not rule out a rate hike

CIS Macroeconomics

The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided to keep the base rate at 9.00%, in line with our and market expectations. The rhetoric in the accompanying press release turned hawkish.

GPB_Kazakh_key rate_review_030619

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Research Articles
May 31, 2019

NBK base rate preview: A pause after surprise April cut

CIS Macroeconomics

We expect the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) to keep the base rate unchanged at 9.0% at its meeting on Monday, June 3.

GPB_NBK_June_base_rate_310519

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