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Research Articles
June 18, 2024

CPI Monitor: Services shift into higher gear in May

Macroeconomics

Consumer inflation decelerated to 0.12% WoW over the June 4-10 period from 0.17% the previous week amid a slowing of growth in prices of airline tickets and a one-off increase in public transportation fares the prior week. In May, inflation rose to 0...

GPB_CPI_Monitor_18.06.24_ENG

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Pavel Biryukov
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Research Articles
June 18, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 18/06/2024

* The ruble ended Monday’s trading session 1.6% stronger against the yuan at CNY/RUB 11.95. The USD/RUB perpetual futures contract closed at 87.74 (-0.3%). Turnover in the yuan fell by 46% to RUB 116.0 bln. The ruble may receive support from a tempor...

GPB_FI_Navigator_18.06.2024_ENG

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Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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Research Articles
June 17, 2024

FX, bonds and rates weekly

June 17-21

* The ruble last week weakened by 0.5% against the dollar and strengthened by 0.9% versus the yuan. The key event was the cessation of trading in the dollar and the euro on the Moscow Exchange. We believe that the ruble may continue to consolidate in...

GPB_WEEKLY_ENG_170624

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Pavel Biryukov, Anastasiya Kravtsova, Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy, Yuriy Golban, Andrey Kulakov
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Research Articles
June 17, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 17/06/2024

* The ruble strengthened by 0.6% against the yuan on Friday to CNY/RUB 12.15. USD/RUB perpetual futures ended Friday’s session at 89.60 (+0.6%). Turnover in the yuan decreased by 17% to RUB 214.2 bln, well above the daily average. In the near future,...

GPB_FI_Navigator_17.06.2024_ENG

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Pavel Biryukov, Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy
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Research Articles
June 14, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 14/06/2024

* Starting June 13, the Moscow Exchange suspended on-exchange trading and settlements of deliverable instruments in US dollars and euros. On Thursday, the USDRUBF perpetual futures contract strengthened for most of the session (up to a level of 86.0 ...

GPB_FI_Navigator_14.06.2024_ENG

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Anastasiya Kravtsova, Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy
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Research Articles
June 13, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 13/06/2024

Negativity prevailed on the OFZ market on Tuesday, with yields on medium and short-dated issues climbing by 3-8 bps, while those at the short end of the curve fell by up to 10 bps. Trading volumes were well below average at RUB 5.8 bln during the mai...

GPB_FI_Navigator_13.06.2024_ENG

pdf (314 Kb)

Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy
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Research Articles
June 11, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 11/06/2024

* The ruble appreciated by 0.9% against the dollar yesterday to USD/RUB 88.55 and by 0.7% versus the yuan to CNY/RUB 12.17. Trading volumes contracted by 28% to RUB 260 bln. Turnover in the dollar decreased by 33% to RUB 95 bln, in the euro by 4% to ...

GPB_FI_Navigator_11.06.2024_ENG

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Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy, Anastasiya Kravtsova, Yuriy Golban
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Research Articles
June 11, 2024

Budget Monitor: Enough spending

Macroeconomics

The federal budget ran a surplus of RUB 501 bln in May vs. RUB 20 bln a year earlier. Budget revenues amounted to RUB 2.6 trln, while expenditures equaled RUB 2.1 trln. The cumulative deficit shrank to RUB 0.98 trln from RUB 1.5 trln in March. By yea...

GPB_Macro_Fiscal_Monitor_11.06.2024...

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Pavel Biryukov
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Research Articles
June 10, 2024

FX, bonds and rates weekly

June 10-14

* The ruble appreciated by 0.8% against the dollar last week and by 1.1% versus the yuan amid heightened expectations of monetary policy tightening at Friday's CBR meeting. This week, the ruble may consolidate in a range of USD/RUB 88-90.  * Positivi...

GPB_WEEKLY_ENG_100624

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Andrey Kulakov, Pavel Biryukov, Yuriy Golban, Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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Research Articles
June 10, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 10/06/2024

* The ruble reverted to depreciation on Friday, retreating to USD/RUB 89.35 (-0.6%) and CNY/RUB 12.26 (-0.3%). Overall volumes increased by 8% to RUB 363 bln. Turnover in the dollar and the euro grew by 46% to RUB 142 bln and by 19% to RUB 44 bln, re...

GPB_FI_Navigator_10.06.2024_ENG

pdf (298 Kb)

Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy, Anastasiya Kravtsova, Yuriy Golban, Pavel Biryukov
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