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Research Articles
October 4, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 04.10.2024

* The ruble exchange rate on the FX market appreciated by 0.3% against the yuan on Thursday, ending the day at CNY/RUB 13.46. Given the Minfin's announcement on Wednesday of the volume FX sales under the budget rule (RUB 3.1 bln per day), net FX sale...

GPB_FI_Navigator_04.10.2024_ENG

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Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova, Pavel Biryukov
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Research Articles
October 3, 2024

CPI Monitor: Unexpected overture

Macroeconomics

Inflation accelerated to 0.19% WoW over the September 24-30 period vs. 0.06% WoW the previous week. The growth was fueled by a seasonally atypical and sharp increase in airfares and a slowing of the seasonal decline in vegetable prices. Adjusted for ...

GPB_CPI_Monitor_03.10.24_ENG

pdf (306 Kb)

Pavel Biryukov
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Research Articles
October 3, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 03.10.2024

* Negativity deepened on the FX market on Wednesday as the ruble market exchange rate depreciated by 1.6% against the yuan to around the CNY/RUB 13.49 mark. Today, the Minfin will announce the volume of FX transactions under the budget rule. We expec...

GPB_FI_Navigator_03.10.2024_ENG

pdf (314 Kb)

Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova, Pavel Biryukov
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Research Articles
October 2, 2024

Budget Overview: Is it disinflationary?

Macroeconomics

The government submitted to the State Duma the draft budget for 2025-2027, which assumes a reduction of the deficit to RUB 1.2 trln from RUB 3.3 trln expected by the Minfin in 2024. This is deemed possible thanks to an increase of the tax burden, whi...

GPB_Budget_overview_02.10.2024_ENG

pdf (417 Kb)

Pavel Biryukov
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Research Articles
October 2, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 02.10.2024

* The ruble market exchange rate appreciated to CNY/RUB 13.14 at the opening on Tuesday, but then gradually weakened to CNY/RUB 13.28. We expect volatility to persist amid the long holiday period in China, with the ruble possibly fluctuating in a wid...

GPB_FI_Navigator_02.10.2024_ENG

pdf (310 Kb)

Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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Research Articles
October 1, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 01.10.2024

* The ruble market exchange rate traded in a narrow range of CNY/RUB 13.2-13.3 on Monday, ending the day at CNY/RUB 13.24 (-0.3%). Given the end of the tax period and the onset of the long holidays in China, the FX market may see a spike in volatilit...

GPB_FI_Navigator_01.10.2024_ENG

pdf (313 Kb)

Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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Research Articles
September 30, 2024

FX, bonds and rates weekly

September 30 – October 4

* The ruble weakened by 1.2% against the yuan last week to CNY/RUB 13.28 despite preparations for tax payments. The beginning of the long holiday period in China this week may lead to increased volatility on the FX market. Under these conditions, the...

GPB_WEEKLY_ENG_300924

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Andrey Kulakov, Pavel Biryukov, Yuriy Golban, Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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Research Articles
September 30, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 30.09.2024

* The ruble market exchange rate continued to depreciate against the yuan on Friday, losing 0.8% to CNY/RUB 13.28. We expect a spike in volatility on the FX market in the coming days ahead of the week-long holiday in China. Given waning support from ...

GPB_FI_Navigator_30.09.2024_ENG

pdf (320 Kb)

Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova, Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy, Andrey Kulakov
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Research Articles
September 27, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 27.09.2024

* Despite preparations for tax payments due on September 30, the ruble market exchange rate depreciated by 0.4% against the yuan on Thursday to CNY/RUB 13.18. We believe that support for the ruble from exporters’ FX sales is already largely exhausted...

GPB_FI_Navigator_27.09.2024_ENG

pdf (315 Kb)

Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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Research Articles
September 26, 2024

CBR meeting minutes: October on the horizon

Macroeconomics

The Central Bank noted that inflation is deviating sharply from the July forecast (6.5-7.0% Dec/Dec), while the economy is slowing amid constraints on supply growth and overheated demand. In these conditions, the CBR is adhering to a strategy of grad...

GPB_CBR_Rate_Review_Afterwords_26.0...

pdf (300 Kb)

Pavel Biryukov
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