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Research Articles
October 4, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 04.10.2024

* The ruble exchange rate on the FX market appreciated by 0.3% against the yuan on Thursday, ending the day at CNY/RUB 13.46. Given the Minfin's announcement on Wednesday of the volume FX sales under the budget rule (RUB 3.1 bln per day), net FX sale...

GPB_FI_Navigator_04.10.2024_ENG

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Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova, Pavel Biryukov
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Research Articles
October 3, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 03.10.2024

* Negativity deepened on the FX market on Wednesday as the ruble market exchange rate depreciated by 1.6% against the yuan to around the CNY/RUB 13.49 mark. Today, the Minfin will announce the volume of FX transactions under the budget rule. We expec...

GPB_FI_Navigator_03.10.2024_ENG

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Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova, Pavel Biryukov
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Research Articles
October 2, 2024

Budget Overview: Is it disinflationary?

Macroeconomics

The government submitted to the State Duma the draft budget for 2025-2027, which assumes a reduction of the deficit to RUB 1.2 trln from RUB 3.3 trln expected by the Minfin in 2024. This is deemed possible thanks to an increase of the tax burden, whi...

GPB_Budget_overview_02.10.2024_ENG

pdf (417 Kb)

Pavel Biryukov
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Research Articles
October 2, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 02.10.2024

* The ruble market exchange rate appreciated to CNY/RUB 13.14 at the opening on Tuesday, but then gradually weakened to CNY/RUB 13.28. We expect volatility to persist amid the long holiday period in China, with the ruble possibly fluctuating in a wid...

GPB_FI_Navigator_02.10.2024_ENG

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Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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Research Articles
October 1, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 01.10.2024

* The ruble market exchange rate traded in a narrow range of CNY/RUB 13.2-13.3 on Monday, ending the day at CNY/RUB 13.24 (-0.3%). Given the end of the tax period and the onset of the long holidays in China, the FX market may see a spike in volatilit...

GPB_FI_Navigator_01.10.2024_ENG

pdf (313 Kb)

Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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Research Articles
September 30, 2024

FX, bonds and rates weekly

September 30 – October 4

* The ruble weakened by 1.2% against the yuan last week to CNY/RUB 13.28 despite preparations for tax payments. The beginning of the long holiday period in China this week may lead to increased volatility on the FX market. Under these conditions, the...

GPB_WEEKLY_ENG_300924

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Andrey Kulakov, Pavel Biryukov, Yuriy Golban, Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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Research Articles
September 30, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 30.09.2024

* The ruble market exchange rate continued to depreciate against the yuan on Friday, losing 0.8% to CNY/RUB 13.28. We expect a spike in volatility on the FX market in the coming days ahead of the week-long holiday in China. Given waning support from ...

GPB_FI_Navigator_30.09.2024_ENG

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Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova, Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy, Andrey Kulakov
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Research Articles
September 27, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 27.09.2024

* Despite preparations for tax payments due on September 30, the ruble market exchange rate depreciated by 0.4% against the yuan on Thursday to CNY/RUB 13.18. We believe that support for the ruble from exporters’ FX sales is already largely exhausted...

GPB_FI_Navigator_27.09.2024_ENG

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Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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Research Articles
September 26, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 26.09.2024

* The ruble market exchange rate yesterday first appreciated against the yuan to CNY/RUB 13.07, but then weakened to CNY/RUB 13.15. Today and tomorrow, we expect the exchange rate to drop to the CNY/RUB 13.0 mark amid preparations for tax payments du...

GPB_FI_Navigator_26.09.2024_ENG

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Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova, Pavel Biryukov
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Research Articles
September 25, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 25.09.2024

* While the ruble weakened on the FX market to CNY/RUB 13.25 on Tuesday morning, it reverted to strengthening in the afternoon and ended the day at CNY/RUB 13.13. The USD/CNY cross rate set by the CBR again matched that on the global market (7.03). W...

GPB_FI_Navigator_25.09.2024_ENG

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Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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