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Research Articles
July 3, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 03/07/2024

* The ruble ended yesterday's session at CNY/RUB 11.81 (-0.6%), while USD/RUB perpetual futures closed at 87.66 (+0.2%). Trading volumes on MOEX contracted by 23.5% to RUB 131 bln. The Minfin is expected to announce its plans regarding FX operations...

GPB_FI_Navigator_03.07.2024_ENG

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Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy
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Research Articles
July 2, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 02/07/2024

* The ruble weakened by 1.2% against the yuan yesterday to CNY/RUB 11.88, while perpetual USD/RUB futures declined 0.6% to 87.48. Yuan volumes contracted by 25.6% to RUB 171 bln. We expect the exchange rate to move further toward the CNY/RUB 12.0 mar...

GPB_FI_Navigator_02.07.2024_ENG

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Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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Research Articles
July 1, 2024

FX, bonds and rates weekly

July 1-5

* The ruble strengthened by 2.7% against the yuan last week to CNY/RUB 11.73, supported by exporters preparing to pay taxes. Support for the ruble may weaken this week due to a downturn in FX sales by exporters and the CBR. Under these conditions, th...

GPB_WEEKLY_ENG_010724

pdf (288 Kb)

Andrey Kulakov, Pavel Biryukov, Yuriy Golban, Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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Research Articles
July 1, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 01/07/2024

* The ruble ended Friday’s session 1.8% weaker against the yuan at RUB/CNY 11.73, while perpetual USD/RUB futures closed at 86.91 (-1.4%). Trading volumes in the yuan contracted by 14.4% to RUB 231 bln. Support for the ruble will likely weaken this w...

GPB_FI_Navigator_01.07.2024_ENG

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Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy, Andrey Kulakov, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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Research Articles
June 28, 2024

China onshore market: Rates update

Debt market

* The PBoC kept its 1Y and 5Y LPR rates unchanged at a respective 3.45% and 3.95%, in line with market expectations. * At the Lujiazui Forum on June 19, the PBoC’s Governor mentioned that trading on the secondary Treasury bond market would gradually ...

GPB_China_onshore market update_28...

pdf (332 Kb)

Gui Dan Tham
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Research Articles
June 28, 2024

OFZ market: New reality

Debt market strategy

Since the beginning of 2024, OFZ yields have increased by 300-400 bps amid escalation of inflationary risks. Yields at the far end of the curve have reached a level of 15.0-15.5%. We expect that following the CBR July meeting the rate will be increas...

GPB_OFZ_Strategy_28.06.24_ENG

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Pavel Biryukov, Andrey Kulakov, Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy
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Research Articles
June 28, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 28/06/2024

* The ruble continued to strengthen against the yuan yesterday, reaching CNY/RUB 11.53. Perpetual USD/RUB futures ended the day at 85.68 (-1.4%). Trading volumes in the yuan jumped by 69% to RUB 270 bln. Amid the exhaustion of support from FX sales b...

GPB_FI_Navigator_28.06.2024_ENG

pdf (308 Kb)

Yuriy Golban, Aleksandr Kamyshanskiy
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Research Articles
June 27, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 27/06/2024

* The ruble strengthened by 1.5% against the yuan yesterday to CNY/RUB 11.71, while perpetual USD/RUB futures ended the day at a level of 86.92 (-0.8%), Trading volumes in the yuan totaled RUB 160 bln, up by 11% compared with Tuesday. The ruble conti...

GPB_FI_Navigator_27.06.2024_ENG

pdf (302 Kb)

Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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Research Articles
June 26, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 26/06/2024

* The ruble weakened by 1.9% against the yuan yesterday to CNY/RUB 11.90. Perpetual USD/RUB futures ended the day at a level of 87.64 (+1.7%). Trading volumes in the yuan fell sharply (-20%) to RUB 144 bln. In the near term, FX market participants wi...

GPB_FI_Navigator_26.06.2024_ENG

pdf (330 Kb)

Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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Research Articles
June 25, 2024

Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 25/06/2024

* The ruble ended yesterday’s trading session stronger against the yuan (+3.1% to CNY/RUB 11.68), while the USD/RUB perpetual futures contract ended the day at 86.19 (-0.5%). Yuan trading volumes decreased significantly to RUB 179 bln (-34%). The rub...

GPB_FI_Navigator_25.06.2024_ENG

pdf (300 Kb)

Yuriy Golban, Anastasiya Kravtsova
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