Economy and Debt Markets Navigator 01/07/2024

* The ruble ended Friday’s session 1.8% weaker against the yuan at RUB/CNY 11.73, while perpetual USD/RUB futures closed at 86.91 (-1.4%). Trading volumes in the yuan contracted by 14.4% to RUB 231 bln. Support for the ruble will likely weaken this week due to a sharp downturn in FX sales by exporters due to the completion of preparations for tax payments, while most dividend payments will be made later, and a decline in daily FX sales by the CBR starting July 1 to RUB 4.7 bln from the previously announced RUB 8.1 bln. Under these conditions, the ruble may weaken to CNY/RUB 11.8-12.0. * Negativity prevailed on the OFZ market on Friday, with yields growing by 3-15 bps along most of the curve. Among other things, the market was pressured by the release of the Minfin's borrowing plan (see separate news). Market activity was low, with volumes totaling RUB 8.5 bln during the main session and RUB 2.7 bln in the mode of negotiated deals and negotiated deals with the central counterparty. Linker yields continued to grow, adding 2-9 bps.